Where and when is Toronto FC vs New York City FC played?

Toronto FC vs New York City FC is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Toronto FC vs New York City FC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Toronto FC

New York City FC

The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for New York City FC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Toronto FC (1,749) and New York City FC (1,837).

Toronto FC win39 %

Draw26 %

New York City FC win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto FC have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; New York City FC have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toronto FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	DC United(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer
Jul 22, 2026	New England Revolution(away)	0-0	Major League Soccer
Jul 16, 2026	CF Montreal(away)	0-0	Major League Soccer

New York City FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Philadelphia Union(home)	2-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 13, 2026	Necaxa(home)	1-2	Leagues Cup
Aug 9, 2026	Cruz Azul(away)	1-2	Leagues Cup
Aug 6, 2026	Santos Laguna(home)	2-0	Leagues Cup
Jul 31, 2026	Toronto FC(home)	1-1	Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Toronto FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 New York City FC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Jul 3, 2025	New York City FC 3-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Apr 26, 2025	Toronto FC 0-1 New York City FC	Major League Soccer
May 11, 2024	Toronto FC 2-3 New York City FC	Major League Soccer
Mar 16, 2024	New York City FC 2-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Sep 24, 2023	New York City FC 3-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: New York City FC vs Toronto FC on Jul 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Toronto FC score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; New York City FC score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC	1.4	1.9	2	13/15	10/15
New York City FC	1.4	1.2	3	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toronto FC sit 12th in Major League Soccer (20 points from 19 matches) and New York City FC sit 7th (26 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	New York City FC	19	7	5	7	33	27	26
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	26	33	20

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?: The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for New York City FC.
Where and when is Toronto FC vs New York City FC played?: Toronto FC vs New York City FC is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.