New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, New Jersey
The Footlab model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 37% for New York Red Bulls. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate New York Red Bulls (1,747) and Philadelphia Union (1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New York Red Bulls have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Philadelphia Union have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Charlotte(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Inter Miami(home) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 New York Red Bulls win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Philadelphia Union win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Philadelphia Union 3-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2025 | New York Red Bulls 1-0 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Philadelphia Union 3-2 New York Red Bulls | US Open Cup |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Philadelphia Union 2-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 31, 2024 | New York Red Bulls 0-2 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Philadelphia Union 0-0 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls on Jul 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
New York Red Bulls score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Philadelphia Union score 1.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Philadelphia Union | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New York Red Bulls sit 8th in Major League Soccer (25 points from 20 matches) and Philadelphia Union sit 13th (20 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 42 | 25 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 37 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
- The Footlab model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 37% for New York Red Bulls.
- Where and when is New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union played?
- New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union is played on August 29, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Sports Illustrated Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 29, 2026Seattle SoundersvsChicago Fire
- Aug 29, 2026Toronto FCvsNew York City FC
- Aug 29, 2026Atlanta United FCvsCharlotte
- Aug 29, 2026Columbus CrewvsNew England Revolution
- Aug 29, 2026DC UnitedvsLos Angeles FC
- Aug 29, 2026Inter MiamivsCF Montreal
- Aug 30, 2026Minnesota United FCvsOrlando City SC
- Aug 30, 2026Houston DynamovsSan Jose Earthquakes