Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 22Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, Kansas
The Footlab model makes Vancouver Whitecaps the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Sporting Kansas City. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
Vancouver Whitecaps is a heavy favourite: 1,957 Elo points against 1,604 — a 353-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Kansas City have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Vancouver Whitecaps have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(away) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 0-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 5-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sporting Kansas City win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Vancouver Whitecaps win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps 3-0 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Vancouver Whitecaps 3-0 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 18, 2024 | Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| May 30, 2024 | Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 2, 2023 | Sporting Kansas City 3-0 Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Sporting Kansas City on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Kansas City score 0.9 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Vancouver Whitecaps score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting Kansas City sit 15th in Major League Soccer (15 points from 20 matches) and Vancouver Whitecaps sit 1st (40 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 18 | 40 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- The Footlab model makes Vancouver Whitecaps the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Sporting Kansas City.
- Where and when is Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps played?
- Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Children's Mercy Park, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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