CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Ciudad de Caseros, Caseros, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes CA Estudiantes the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Deportivo Moron. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate CA Estudiantes (1,789) and Deportivo Moron (1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CA Estudiantes have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Deportivo Moron have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Central Norte(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn(home) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ciudad de Bolívar(home) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | San Telmo(away) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Almagro(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Acassuso(home) | 4-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chaco For Ever(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ferro Carril Oeste(home) | 4-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 CA Estudiantes win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Deportivo Moron win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Deportivo Moron 2-0 CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Deportivo Moron 1-1 CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 26, 2025 | CA Estudiantes 0-1 Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Deportivo Moron 0-1 CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
| Dec 29, 2020 | Deportivo Moron 2-1 CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 7, 2020 | Deportivo Moron 1-0 CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Moron vs CA Estudiantes on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CA Estudiantes score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Moron score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Estudiantes | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Deportivo Moron | 1.7 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CA Estudiantes sit 7th in Primera Nacional (35 points from 26 matches) and Deportivo Moron sit 2nd (45 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 45 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 22 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron?
- The Footlab model makes CA Estudiantes the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Deportivo Moron.
- Where and when is CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron played?
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Ciudad de Caseros, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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