Atlético Astorga vs Numancia: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Eragudina, Astorga
The Footlab AI model makes Numancia the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Atlético Astorga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Numancia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Numancia?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Atlético Astorga (1,860) and Numancia (1,952).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atlético Astorga vs Numancia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atlético Astorga
Not enough data to predict the Atlético Astorga lineup.
Numancia
4-3-3- 9Jony González
- 14Alejandro Gil Rochina
- 26C. Godson
- 8M. Gning
- 5O. De Frutos
- 6N. Lucas Rey
- 2Marcos Sánchez
- 16Carlos Gutiérrez
- 22Fermín Ruiz
- 4Ian Olivera
- 1M. Abad
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Astorga have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Numancia have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Amorebieta(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Sestao River(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Basconia(away) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Ávila(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Getafe II(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | SS Reyes(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | A Madrid III(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Atlético Astorga wins, 0 draws, 0 Numancia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Numancia 0-1 Atlético Astorga | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Atlético Astorga 1-0 Numancia | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Numancia vs Atlético Astorga on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Astorga score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Numancia score 1.2 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Astorga | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Numancia | 1.2 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Numancia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
A question about Atlético Astorga vs Numancia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Astorga vs Numancia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Numancia the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Atlético Astorga.
- Where and when is Atlético Astorga vs Numancia played?
- Atlético Astorga vs Numancia is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Eragudina, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 22, 2026CF TalaveravsAtlético Tordesillas
- Nov 22, 2026NavalcarnerovsGimnástica Segoviana
- Nov 22, 2026Getafe IIvsRSD Alcalá
- Nov 22, 2026Salamanca UDSvsCalvo Sotelo
- Nov 22, 2026Real ÁvilavsConquense
- Nov 22, 2026CalamochavsReal Valladolid II
- Nov 22, 2026Albacete IIvsGuadalajara
- Nov 22, 2026A Madrid IIIvsSS Reyes