Where and when is Atlético Astorga vs Numancia played?

Atlético Astorga vs Numancia is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Eragudina, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Atlético Astorga vs Numancia: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Eragudina, Astorga

Atlético Astorga

Numancia

The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Atlético Astorga. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Numancia?

A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Atlético Astorga (1,888) and Numancia (1,941).

Atlético Astorga win35 %

Draw28 %

Numancia win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Astorga have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Numancia have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atlético Astorga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Cultural Leonesa(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	La Bañeza(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	UD Ourense(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Sarriana(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Numancia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Zaragoza(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Poblense(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Poblense(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Marino de Luanco(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Langreo(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Atlético Astorga win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Numancia win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 15, 2026	Numancia 0-1 Atlético Astorga	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Dec 20, 2025	Atlético Astorga 1-0 Numancia	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Numancia vs Atlético Astorga on Mar 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atlético Astorga score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Numancia score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Atlético Astorga	1.3	1.3	5	7/15	7/15
Numancia	1.3	0.9	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atlético Astorga vs Numancia?: The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Atlético Astorga.
Where and when is Atlético Astorga vs Numancia played?: Atlético Astorga vs Numancia is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Eragudina, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.