Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Atletico DE Rafaela the favourite at 45%, against 35% for a draw and 21% for San Martin Tucuman. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Atletico DE Rafaela (1,770) and San Martin Tucuman (1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico DE Rafaela have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; San Martin Tucuman have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Club Atlético Güemes(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn(home) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Temperley(home) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Atletico DE Rafaela win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 San Martin Tucuman win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman 2-1 Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 3, 2022 | Atletico DE Rafaela 1-1 San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
| Dec 14, 2020 | San Martin Tucuman 0-3 Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
| Oct 20, 2019 | San Martin Tucuman 3-0 Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
| Nov 4, 2017 | San Martin Tucuman 0-2 Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: San Martin Tucuman vs Atletico DE Rafaela on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico DE Rafaela score 0.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; San Martin Tucuman score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 24% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 0.5 | 0.7 | 9 | 2/15 | 1/15 |
| San Martin Tucuman | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico DE Rafaela sit 8th in Primera Nacional (36 points from 26 matches) and San Martin Tucuman sit 9th (35 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 36 |
| 9 | San Martin Tucuman | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 23 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico DE Rafaela the favourite at 45%, against 35% for a draw and 21% for San Martin Tucuman.
- Where and when is Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman played?
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 24% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026Colon Santa FevsLos Andes
- Sep 12, 2026TemperleyvsAlmagro
- Sep 12, 2026San Martin S.J.vsColegiales
- Sep 12, 2026AgropecuariovsGimnasia Y Tiro
- Sep 12, 2026Deportivo MoronvsGodoy Cruz
- Sep 12, 2026Ferro Carril OestevsCiudad de Bolívar
- Sep 12, 2026Nueva ChicagovsPatronato
- Sep 12, 2026Chacarita JuniorsvsQuilmes