Where and when is Nueva Chicago vs Patronato played?

Nueva Chicago vs Patronato is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio República de Mataderos, in the Primera Nacional.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Nueva Chicago vs Patronato: prediction and stats

Primera NacionalRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio República de Mataderos, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires

Nueva Chicago

Patronato

The Footlab model makes Nueva Chicago the favourite at 47%, against 32% for a draw and 22% for Patronato. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?

A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Nueva Chicago (1,716) and Patronato (1,708).

Nueva Chicago win47 %

Draw32 %

Patronato win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nueva Chicago have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Patronato have 2, 9 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Nueva Chicago
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Atlanta(home)	0-1	Primera Nacional
Aug 17, 2026	All Boys(away)	0-1	Primera Nacional
Aug 9, 2026	Gimnasia Y Tiro(away)	0-2	Primera Nacional
Aug 1, 2026	San Martin Tucuman(home)	2-1	Primera Nacional
Jul 25, 2026	Atletico DE Rafaela(away)	0-1	Primera Nacional

Patronato
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Gimnasia Jujuy(home)	3-3	Primera Nacional
Aug 15, 2026	Colon Santa Fe(away)	0-3	Primera Nacional
Aug 9, 2026	Colegiales(away)	2-2	Primera Nacional
Aug 1, 2026	Quilmes(home)	3-3	Primera Nacional
Jul 26, 2026	Midland(away)	0-1	Primera Nacional

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Nueva Chicago win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Patronato win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Patronato 2-1 Nueva Chicago	Primera Nacional
Sep 11, 2023	Nueva Chicago 1-1 Patronato	Primera Nacional
Apr 30, 2023	Patronato 0-0 Nueva Chicago	Primera Nacional
May 12, 2013	Nueva Chicago 2-0 Patronato	Primera Nacional
Nov 11, 2012	Patronato 0-2 Nueva Chicago	Primera Nacional

Last archived meeting: Patronato vs Nueva Chicago on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Nueva Chicago score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Patronato score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Nueva Chicago	0.7	1.2	3	5/15	4/15
Patronato	1.1	1.3	2	9/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Nueva Chicago sit 14th in Primera Nacional (29 points from 25 matches) and Patronato sit 17th (25 points from 25 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
14	Nueva Chicago	25	7	8	10	20	24	29
17	Patronato	25	4	13	8	21	29	25

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?: The Footlab model makes Nueva Chicago the favourite at 47%, against 32% for a draw and 22% for Patronato.
Where and when is Nueva Chicago vs Patronato played?: Nueva Chicago vs Patronato is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio República de Mataderos, in the Primera Nacional.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.