FBC Melgar vs ADT: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín, Arequipa
The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for ADT. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs ADT?
FBC Melgar starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,750 vs 1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FBC Melgar have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; ADT have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(away) | 1-5 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FBC Melgar win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 ADT win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | ADT 1-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Aug 24, 2025 | ADT 2-2 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Apr 5, 2025 | FBC Melgar 4-0 ADT | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2024 | ADT 1-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FBC Melgar 3-1 ADT | Primera División |
| Jun 22, 2023 | FBC Melgar 4-0 ADT | Primera División |
How many goals should we expect?
FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; ADT score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| ADT | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FBC Melgar sit 5th in Primera División (28 points from 17 matches) and ADT sit 10th (20 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 26 | 38 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 16 | ADT | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 33 | 22 |
| 18 | ADT | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | ADT | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FBC Melgar vs ADT?
- The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for ADT.
- Where and when is FBC Melgar vs ADT played?
- FBC Melgar vs ADT is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026UniversitariovsComerciantes Unidos
- Sep 5, 2026Sporting CristalvsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 5, 2026Sport HuancayovsSport Boys
- Sep 5, 2026Alianza AtleticovsUTC Cajamarca
- Sep 5, 2026CuscovsUCV Moquegua
- Sep 5, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsAtletico Grau
- Sep 5, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsAlianza Lima
- Sep 5, 2026FC CajamarcavsCienciano