Austin vs Nashville SC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Q2 Stadium, Austin, Texas
The Footlab model makes Nashville SC the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Austin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Austin vs Nashville SC?
Nashville SC starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,729).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Austin have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Nashville SC have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Club America(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Columbus Crew(home) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inter Miami(home) | 4-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 4-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Austin win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Nashville SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2025 | Austin 1-2 Nashville SC | US Open Cup |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Austin 2-1 Nashville SC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Nashville SC 0-2 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Austin 1-1 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Nashville SC 3-0 Austin | Major League Soccer |
| May 24, 2021 | Nashville SC 1-0 Austin | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Austin vs Nashville SC on Oct 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Austin score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nashville SC score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Nashville SC | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Austin sit 14th in Major League Soccer (21 points from 21 matches) and Nashville SC sit 1st (49 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 17 | 49 |
| 14 | Austin | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 40 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Austin vs Nashville SC?
- The Footlab model makes Nashville SC the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Austin.
- Where and when is Austin vs Nashville SC played?
- Austin vs Nashville SC is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Q2 Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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