New York Red Bulls vs San Diego: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, New Jersey
The Footlab AI model makes San Diego the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for New York Red Bulls. The most likely score is 1-1. If San Diego wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate New York Red Bulls (1,812) and San Diego (1,883).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
New York Red Bulls
4-3-3- 7C. Cowell
- 11J. Ruvalcaba
- 16J. Hall
- 37M. Sofo
- 15A. Mehmeti
- 10E. Forsberg
- 14J. Bazán
- 12D. Nealis
- 26T. Parker
- 59D. Padelford
- 34E. Horvath
Known absences
A. MarcucciOut · Knee injury- C. HarperDoubtful · Muscle injury
- J. CheDoubtful · Ankle injury
J. Marshall-RuttyDoubtful · Hamstring injury
San Diego
3-4-3- 10A. Dreyer
- 99E. Achouri
- 7M. Ingvartsen
- 6J. Tverskov
- 20A. Godoy
- 33O. Verhoeven
- 3D. Þórhallsson
- 26M. Duah
- 32I. Murphy
- 25I. Pilcher
- 1C. dos Santos
Known absences
A. PellegrinoDoubtful · Injured
Gabriel PiraniDoubtful · Muscle injury- S. VinesDoubtful · Injured
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 02:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New York Red Bulls have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; San Diego have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 0-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 18, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 0-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Austin(away) | 3-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 0-5 | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 10, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(home) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 New York Red Bulls wins, 0 draws, 1 San Diego win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2025 | San Diego 6-0 New York Red Bulls | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: San Diego vs New York Red Bulls on Feb 15, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
New York Red Bulls score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; San Diego score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| San Diego | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New York Red Bulls sit 8th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 27 matches) and San Diego sit 12th (32 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red BullsEastern Conference | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 51 | 33 |
| 12 | San DiegoWestern Conference | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 32 |
A question about New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
- The Footlab AI model makes San Diego the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for New York Red Bulls.
- Where and when is New York Red Bulls vs San Diego played?
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego is played on October 10, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Sports Illustrated Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Toronto FCvsCF Montreal
- Oct 10, 2026Chicago FirevsNew York City FC
- Oct 10, 2026Atlanta United FCvsFC Cincinnati
- Oct 10, 2026New England RevolutionvsSeattle Sounders
- Oct 10, 2026Inter MiamivsDC United
- Oct 10, 2026CharlottevsFC Dallas
- Oct 10, 2026Orlando City SCvsColumbus Crew
- Oct 10, 2026Philadelphia UnionvsReal Salt Lake