New York Red Bulls vs San Diego: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, New Jersey
The Footlab model makes New York Red Bulls the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for San Diego. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate New York Red Bulls (1,713) and San Diego (1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New York Red Bulls have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; San Diego have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Charlotte(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(home) | 3-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 New York Red Bulls win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 San Diego win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2025 | San Diego 6-0 New York Red Bulls | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: San Diego vs New York Red Bulls on Feb 15, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
New York Red Bulls score 1.4 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; San Diego score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| San Diego | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New York Red Bulls sit 8th in Major League Soccer (26 points from 21 matches) and San Diego sit 11th (27 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 43 | 26 |
| 11 | San Diego | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 37 | 32 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
- The Footlab model makes New York Red Bulls the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for San Diego.
- Where and when is New York Red Bulls vs San Diego played?
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego is played on October 10, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Sports Illustrated Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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