Match

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

Chicago FireNew York City FC

The Footlab AI model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for New York City FC. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chicago Fire wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

On Elo ratings, Chicago Fire has 1,944 points and New York City FC 1,888.

58%23%19%
Chicago Fire winDrawNew York City FC win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Chicago Fire

4-4-2
  1. 7M. Haile-Selassie
  2. 18J. Gómez
  1. 11P. Zinckernagel
  2. 42T. D'Avilla
  3. 19J. Bamba
  4. 6A. Salétros
  1. 3J. Elliott
  2. 24J. Dean
  3. 2Leonardo Barroso
  4. 4M. Mbokazi
  1. 44J. Cohen

Known absences

  • André FrancoOut · Knee injury
  • R. TurdeanDoubtful · Not in squad

New York City FC

4-2-3-1
  1. 9B. Traoré
  1. 8A. Perea
  2. 26A. Ojeda
  3. 7N. Fernández Mercau
  4. 17H. Wolf
  5. 32J. Shore
  1. 6J. Sands
  2. 13Thiago Martins
  3. 2Nico Cavallo
  4. 34Raul Gustavo
  1. 49M. Freese

Known absences

  • A. BaieraOut · Knee injury
  • A. FarnosOut · Injured
  • M. MoralezOut · Knee injury
  • K. ParksDoubtful · Injured
  • K. TrewinDoubtful · Ankle injury
  • Talles MagnoDoubtful · Muscle injury

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:46 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chicago Fire have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; New York City FC have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Chicago Fire
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026Vancouver Whitecaps(home)3-1Major League Soccer
Sep 26, 2026Charlotte(away)1-0Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2026Nashville SC(away)0-3Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2026New England Revolution(home)1-2Major League Soccer
Sep 10, 2026Inter Miami(home)1-1Major League Soccer
New York City FC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 26, 2026Atlanta United FC(away)2-2Major League Soccer
Sep 18, 2026New York Red Bulls(home)0-1Major League Soccer
Sep 13, 2026Real Salt Lake(away)2-0Major League Soccer
Sep 10, 2026New England Revolution(home)1-2Major League Soccer
Sep 4, 2026Nashville SC(home)0-0Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chicago Fire wins, 2 draws, 4 New York City FC wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 25, 2026New York City FC 3-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Sep 14, 2025Chicago Fire 1-3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
May 25, 2025New York City FC 3-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Aug 24, 2024New York City FC 2-2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Jul 14, 2024Chicago Fire 0-0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Oct 22, 2023New York City FC 1-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer

Last archived meeting: New York City FC vs Chicago Fire on Jul 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Chicago Fire score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; New York City FC score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Chicago Fire1.81.4212/1511/15
New York City FC1.31.3311/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Chicago Fire sit 4th in Major League Soccer (45 points from 27 matches) and New York City FC sit 9th (33 points from 27 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Chicago Fire271368493945
9New York City FC278910413633

A question about Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
The Footlab AI model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for New York City FC.
Where and when is Chicago Fire vs New York City FC played?
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC is played on October 10, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Soldier Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Chicago Fire and New York City FC

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