Chicago Fire vs New York City FC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for New York City FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Chicago Fire (1,851) and New York City FC (1,793).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chicago Fire have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; New York City FC have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chicago Fire win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 New York City FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | New York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Chicago Fire 1-3 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| May 25, 2025 | New York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 24, 2024 | New York City FC 2-2 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Chicago Fire 0-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 22, 2023 | New York City FC 1-0 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: New York City FC vs Chicago Fire on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chicago Fire score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; New York City FC score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| New York City FC | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chicago Fire sit 3rd in Major League Soccer (36 points from 20 matches) and New York City FC sit 7th (27 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 36 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 30 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?
- The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for New York City FC.
- Where and when is Chicago Fire vs New York City FC played?
- Chicago Fire vs New York City FC is played on October 10, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Soldier Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Toronto FCvsCF Montreal
- Oct 10, 2026Philadelphia UnionvsReal Salt Lake
- Oct 10, 2026New York Red BullsvsSan Diego
- Oct 10, 2026Atlanta United FCvsFC Cincinnati
- Oct 10, 2026New England RevolutionvsSeattle Sounders
- Oct 10, 2026Inter MiamivsDC United
- Oct 10, 2026CharlottevsFC Dallas
- Oct 10, 2026Orlando City SCvsColumbus Crew