Where and when is Toronto FC vs CF Montreal played?

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal is played on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Toronto FC

CF Montreal

The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for CF Montreal. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Toronto FC (1,804) and CF Montreal (1,788).

Toronto FC win47 %

Draw25 %

CF Montreal win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto FC have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; CF Montreal have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toronto FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Inter Miami(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Charlotte(home)	3-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	DC United(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer

CF Montreal
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Los Angeles Galaxy(home)	2-2	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Columbus Crew(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	DC United(home)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 1, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-2	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	Inter Miami(home)	0-1	Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toronto FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 CF Montreal win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 16, 2026	CF Montreal 0-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Aug 30, 2025	Toronto FC 1-1 CF Montreal	Major League Soccer
May 17, 2025	CF Montreal 1-6 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Apr 30, 2025	Toronto FC 2-2 CF Montreal	Canadian Championship
Jul 20, 2024	CF Montreal 0-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
May 18, 2024	Toronto FC 5-1 CF Montreal	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: CF Montreal vs Toronto FC on Jul 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Toronto FC score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; CF Montreal score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC	1.5	1.9	2	13/15	11/15
CF Montreal	1.7	1.4	3	9/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toronto FC sit 10th in Major League Soccer (24 points from 21 matches) and CF Montreal sit 13th (21 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
13	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?: The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for CF Montreal.
Where and when is Toronto FC vs CF Montreal played?: Toronto FC vs CF Montreal is played on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.