Match

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Toronto FCCF Montreal

The Footlab AI model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for CF Montreal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Toronto FC wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

On Elo ratings, Toronto FC has 1,703 points and CF Montreal 1,692.

53%23%24%
Toronto FC winDrawCF Montreal win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Toronto FC

4-2-3-1
  1. 9J. Sargent
  1. 20D. Sallói
  2. 6N. Dorsch
  3. 7T. Corbeanu
  4. 71M. Cimermancic
  5. 11D. Etienne
  1. 3Matheus Pereira
  2. 22R. Laryea
  3. 13B. Kuscevic
  4. 25W. Zimmerman
  1. 1L. Gavran

Known absences

  • N. PalacioOut · Injured
  • D. MihailovićDoubtful · Muscle injury

CF Montreal

3-4-1-2
  1. 9P. Owusu
  2. 14D. Ríos
  1. 22V. Loturi
  2. 13L. Petrasso
  3. 10A. Sánchez
  4. 8M. Longstaff
  5. 27D. Bugaj
  1. 2J. Neal
  2. 3B. Ceballos
  3. 5B. Craig
  1. 1S. Breza

Known absences

  • B. HidalgoOut · Groin injury
  • B. VeraDoubtful · Injured
  • D. SealyDoubtful · Not in squad

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:46 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto FC have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; CF Montreal have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toronto FC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Nashville SC(away)0-2Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2026St. Louis City(away)1-3Major League Soccer
Sep 12, 2026Orlando City SC(away)0-3Major League Soccer
Sep 9, 2026Nashville SC(home)2-1Major League Soccer
Sep 5, 2026Chicago Fire(home)4-4Major League Soccer
CF Montreal
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 26, 2026FC Cincinnati(home)3-1Major League Soccer
Sep 19, 2026Columbus Crew(home)0-2Major League Soccer
Sep 16, 2026Vancouver Whitecaps(home)2-1Canadian Championship
Sep 13, 2026Colorado Rapids(away)0-1Major League Soccer
Sep 9, 2026Charlotte(home)1-2Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toronto FC wins, 3 draws, 0 CF Montreal wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 16, 2026CF Montreal 0-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Aug 30, 2025Toronto FC 1-1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
May 17, 2025CF Montreal 1-6 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Apr 30, 2025Toronto FC 2-2 CF MontrealCanadian Championship
Jul 20, 2024CF Montreal 0-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
May 18, 2024Toronto FC 5-1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

Last archived meeting: CF Montreal vs Toronto FC on Jul 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Toronto FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; CF Montreal score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Toronto FC1.31.8211/1510/15
CF Montreal1.01.719/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toronto FC sit 13th in Major League Soccer (29 points from 27 matches) and CF Montreal sit 15th (24 points from 27 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
13Toronto FC2761110395129
15CF Montreal276615345424

A question about Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?
The Footlab AI model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for CF Montreal.
Where and when is Toronto FC vs CF Montreal played?
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal is played on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Toronto FC and CF Montreal

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