AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Heerenveen. The most likely score is 1-1. If AZ Alkmaar wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,521 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen?
On Elo ratings, AZ Alkmaar has 2,150 points and Heerenveen 2,054.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 21D. Kwakman
- 17V. Byskov
- 7Weslley Patati
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 3W. Goes
- 34M. de Wit
- 28J. De Busser
Heerenveen
4-2-3-1- 9D. Vente
- 7M. Rivera
- 20J. Trenskow
- 8N. Courtens
- 16M. Linday
- 14L. Smans
- 4S. Kersten
- 19V. Zagaritis
- 45O. Braude
- 3M. Willemsen
- 1B. Klaverboer
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 10:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Heerenveen have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Excelsior Maassluis(away) | 2-0 | KNVB Beker |
| Oct 24, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 9, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AZ Alkmaar wins, 0 draws, 2 Heerenveen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Heerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Apr 12, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| May 22, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Sep 14, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 9-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar on Sep 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Heerenveen score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Heerenveen | 2.1 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 5th in Eredivisie (20 points from 11 matches) and Heerenveen sit 7th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 18 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Heerenveen.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen is played on January 9, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.