Willem II vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Willem II. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Willem II vs Ajax?
Ajax is a heavy favourite: 2,090 Elo points against 1,778, a 312-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Willem II vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Willem II
4-2-3-1- 9D. Haen
- 7J. Slory
- 19Uriel van Aalst
- 6C. Twigt
- 52T. Vilhena
- 32V. van Crooij
- 24N. Tjoe-A-On
- 3F. Stam
- 5H. ter Avest
- 23M. Dekker
- 26M. Delanghe
Ajax
4-3-3- 99T. Arokodare
- 11V. Tsygankov
- 10O. Gloukh
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 15Y. Baas
- 6T. Kehrer
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Willem II have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Ajax have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Willem II wins, 0 draws, 6 Ajax wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ajax 5-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Willem II 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Ajax 1-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Feb 19, 2022 | Willem II 0-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 2, 2021 | Ajax 5-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Jan 28, 2021 | Ajax 3-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Willem II score 1.2 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 2.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Ajax | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Willem II sit 18th in Eredivisie (2 points from 8 matches) and Ajax sit 5th (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 2 |
A question about Willem II vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Willem II vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Willem II.
- Where and when is Willem II vs Ajax played?
- Willem II vs Ajax is played on January 9, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Koning Willem II Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.