Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Sparta Rotterdam the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sparta Rotterdam wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Sparta Rotterdam (1,882) and Excelsior (1,919).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sparta Rotterdam
4-1-4-1- 9M. Zonneveld
- 6N. Verschuren
- 11I. Babadi
- 8J. Toornstra
- 16J. Baas
- 17C. Terho
- 5B. Kuipers
- 3M. Young
- 2L. Martes
- 4B. Martins Indi
- 1M. Brouwer
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Rotterdam have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 0-4 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sparta Rotterdam wins, 0 draws, 3 Excelsior wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| May 17, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Excelsior 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 4-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Excelsior 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam on Aug 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Rotterdam score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.7 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Rotterdam sit 14th in Eredivisie (6 points from 8 matches) and Excelsior sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 6 |
A question about Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sparta Rotterdam the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior played?
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.