Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
The Footlab model makes Heerenveen the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Heerenveen (1,971) and Sparta Rotterdam (1,910).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heerenveen have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Sparta Rotterdam have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Twente(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | OH Leuven(home) | 4-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Telstar(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Heerenveen win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Sparta Rotterdam win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Heerenveen 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 0-3 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Heerenveen 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| May 19, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Heerenveen 1-3 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heerenveen score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sparta Rotterdam score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heerenveen sit 9th in Eredivisie (4 points from 3 matches) and Sparta Rotterdam sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- The Footlab model makes Heerenveen the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Where and when is Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam played?
- Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Abe Lenstra Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.