Azam vs Fountain Gate: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 3, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Azam Complex Stadium, Mbagala
The Footlab AI model makes Azam the favourite at 79%, against 15% for a draw and 6% for Fountain Gate. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Azam vs Fountain Gate?
Azam is a heavy favourite: 1,870 Elo points against 1,502, a 368-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Azam vs Fountain Gate
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Azam
4-3-3- 19G. Sillah
- 11Naldo
- 20H. Molia
- 23H. Mao
- 6F. Salum
- 4Donovan Stephane Makoma
- 5L. Mwaikenda
- 2N. Idumba
- 12P. Msindo
- 13T. Abdulrafiu
- 28A. Manula
Fountain Gate
4-3-3- 22S. Said
- 20A. Athuman
- 27Hashimu Kindemile
- 9C. Obasi
- 60S. Mgunda
- 67M. Balama
- 15D. Mukombozi
- 6O. Awara
- 29J. Shiga
- 19A. Mtambi
- 18I. Parapanda
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 06:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Azam have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Fountain Gate have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Masr(away) | 1-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Namungo(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Young Africans(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Mbeya City(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Azam wins, 1 draw, 0 Fountain Gate wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | Fountain Gate 0-2 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Azam 0-0 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Fountain Gate 2-3 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Azam 2-0 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Fountain Gate 0-1 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 21, 2023 | Azam 2-1 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Fountain Gate vs Azam on Jun 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Azam score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fountain Gate score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azam | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Fountain Gate | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Azam sit 3rd in Ligi kuu Bara (17 points from 8 matches) and Fountain Gate sit 16th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 17 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
A question about Azam vs Fountain Gate?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Azam vs Fountain Gate?
- The Footlab AI model makes Azam the favourite at 79%, against 15% for a draw and 6% for Fountain Gate.
- Where and when is Azam vs Fountain Gate played?
- Azam vs Fountain Gate is played on May 3, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Azam Complex Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.