Azam vs Fountain Gate: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 3, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Azam Complex Stadium, Mbagala
The Footlab model makes Azam the favourite at 77%, against 17% for a draw and 6% for Fountain Gate. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Azam vs Fountain Gate?
Azam is a heavy favourite: 1,818 Elo points against 1,483 — a 336-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Azam have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Fountain Gate have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 0-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 4-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Azam win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Fountain Gate win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | Fountain Gate 0-2 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Azam 0-0 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Fountain Gate 2-3 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 17, 2024 | Azam 2-0 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Fountain Gate 0-1 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 21, 2023 | Azam 2-1 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Fountain Gate vs Azam on Jun 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Azam score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fountain Gate score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azam | 1.9 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Fountain Gate | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Azam sit 3rd in Ligi kuu Bara (7 points from 3 matches) and Fountain Gate sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Azam | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Fountain Gate | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Azam vs Fountain Gate?
- The Footlab model makes Azam the favourite at 77%, against 17% for a draw and 6% for Fountain Gate.
- Where and when is Azam vs Fountain Gate played?
- Azam vs Fountain Gate is played on May 3, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Azam Complex Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.