Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 3, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab AI model makes Kagera Sugar the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Mashujaa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Kagera Sugar wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,783 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Kagera Sugar (1,499) and Mashujaa (1,584).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kagera Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Kagera Sugar lineup.
Mashujaa
4-3-3- 45Michael Joseph
- 7C. Mhagama
- 57H. Kabunda
- 27S. Madeleke
- 23T. Simba
- 54H. Lidah
- 3H. Lyawatwa
- 20M. Mwakinyuke
- 13S. Mgandila
- 4S. Onditi
- 43M. Malik
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 12:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Mashujaa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fountain Gate(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Mashujaa(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Simba(away) | 1-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Kagera Sugar wins, 2 draws, 3 Mashujaa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | Mashujaa 2-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 12, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 0-1 Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Mashujaa 1-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 16, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 1-1 Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2023 | Mashujaa 2-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Mashujaa vs Kagera Sugar on Aug 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mashujaa score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Mashujaa | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 14th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 8 matches) and Mashujaa sit 6th (12 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mashujaa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 6 |
A question about Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Kagera Sugar the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Mashujaa.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Mashujaa is played on May 3, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.