Where and when is Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gedania Gdansk played?

Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gedania Gdansk is played on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin, in the III Liga - Group 2.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gedania Gdansk: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 2Group II - 10Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin, Koszalin

Bałtyk Koszalin

Gedania Gdansk

The Footlab model makes Gedania Gdansk the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Bałtyk Koszalin. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gedania Gdansk?

A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Bałtyk Koszalin (1,653) and Gedania Gdansk (1,668).

Bałtyk Koszalin win34 %

Draw24 %

Gedania Gdansk win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bałtyk Koszalin have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Gedania Gdansk have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bałtyk Koszalin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Kalisz(home)	1-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 19, 2026	Kotwica Kórnik(away)	1-0	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 15, 2026	Flota Świnoujście(home)	1-2	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 9, 2026	Luzino(away)	1-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 1, 2026	Polonia Środa(home)	0-3	III Liga - Group 2

Gedania Gdansk
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Lech Poznań II(home)	2-3	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 19, 2026	Kluczevia Stargard(away)	2-2	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 15, 2026	Wda Świecie(home)	1-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 8, 2026	Elana Toruń(away)	2-2	III Liga - Group 2
Jul 31, 2026	Noteć Czarnków(home)	5-3	III Liga - Group 2

How many goals should we expect?

Bałtyk Koszalin score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gedania Gdansk score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bałtyk Koszalin	1.1	1.7	2	9/15	8/15
Gedania Gdansk	1.5	2.3	1	8/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bałtyk Koszalin sit 13th in III Liga - Group 2 (5 points from 5 matches) and Gedania Gdansk sit 10th (6 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Gedania Gdansk	5	1	3	1	12	11	6
13	Bałtyk Koszalin	5	1	2	2	4	7	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gedania Gdansk?: The Footlab model makes Gedania Gdansk the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Bałtyk Koszalin.
Where and when is Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gedania Gdansk played?: Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gedania Gdansk is played on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion ZOS Bałtyk Koszalin, in the III Liga - Group 2.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.