Match

Ponferradina vs Barakaldo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 9Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada

PonferradinaBarakaldo

The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 49%, against 31% for a draw and 20% for Barakaldo. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,182 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?

A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Ponferradina (1,986) and Barakaldo (1,954).

49%31%20%
Ponferradina winDrawBarakaldo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Ponferradina

4-3-3
  1. 10Borja Valle
  2. 7C. Calderon
  3. 11Quicala Bari
  1. 6Fede San Emeterio
  2. 15O. Vacas
  3. 8Arturo Molina
  1. 4A. Jelbat
  2. 3Sergio Nieto
  3. 24Koke
  4. 2David Andújar
  1. 1Álex Domínguez

Barakaldo

4-3-3
  1. 27E. Mateos
  2. 19Ángel Troncho
  3. 11Carlos Mattheus
  1. 15I. Jimenez
  2. 21X. Fernandez
  3. 8Julen Huidobro
  1. 3Ander Zoilo
  2. 18Benat Gomez
  3. 17Pablo Trigueros
  4. 5Aritz Muguruza
  1. 13Gaizka Campos

Computed on October 24, 2026 at 03:21 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Barakaldo have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ponferradina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Zamora(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 11, 2026Real Avilés(home)0-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Mirandes(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Pontevedra(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Mérida AD(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Barakaldo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Mirandes(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 10, 2026UD Ourense(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Arenas Getxo(home)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Real Avilés(home)3-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Racing Ferrol(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Ponferradina wins, 1 draw, 1 Barakaldo win.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 19, 2026Ponferradina 1-0 BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 9, 2025Barakaldo 0-0 PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Feb 7, 2025Ponferradina 0-1 BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 17, 2024Barakaldo 0-1 PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Barakaldo on Apr 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Barakaldo score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Ponferradina0.91.176/155/15
Barakaldo1.21.155/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Ponferradina sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (12 points from 8 matches) and Barakaldo sit 15th (9 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Ponferradina83326612
15Barakaldo82338109

A question about Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 49%, against 31% for a draw and 20% for Barakaldo.
Where and when is Ponferradina vs Barakaldo played?
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Ponferradina and Barakaldo

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