Where and when is Ponferradina vs Barakaldo played?

Ponferradina vs Barakaldo is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Ponferradina vs Barakaldo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada

Ponferradina

Barakaldo

The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Barakaldo. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?

A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Ponferradina (1,968) and Barakaldo (1,956).

Ponferradina win42 %

Draw31 %

Barakaldo win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Barakaldo have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ponferradina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Real Madrid II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Marino de Luanco(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Real Avilés(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Oviedo(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 20, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(away)	1-4	Primera División RFEF - Play Offs

Barakaldo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Portugalete(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(home)	1-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Real Avilés(away)	4-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 9, 2026	Mérida AD(home)	2-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 1, 2026	Tenerife(away)	0-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Ponferradina win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Barakaldo win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 19, 2026	Ponferradina 1-0 Barakaldo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 9, 2025	Barakaldo 0-0 Ponferradina	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Feb 7, 2025	Ponferradina 0-1 Barakaldo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 17, 2024	Barakaldo 0-1 Ponferradina	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Barakaldo on Apr 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Ponferradina	1.1	1.3	7	6/15	7/15
Barakaldo	1.3	0.9	6	5/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Ponferradina sit 4th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (60 points from 38 matches) and Barakaldo sit 7th (58 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Ponferradina	38	17	9	12	43	33	60
7	Barakaldo	38	15	13	10	51	38	58

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?: The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Barakaldo.
Where and when is Ponferradina vs Barakaldo played?: Ponferradina vs Barakaldo is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.