Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV played?

Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV is played on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

Hamburger SV

The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (2,282 vs 2,071).

Bayer Leverkusen win66 %

Draw19 %

Hamburger SV win15 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Hamburger SV have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Verl(away)	3-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayer Leverkusen win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Hamburger SV win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Mar 4, 2026	Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Feb 17, 2018	Hamburger SV 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Sep 24, 2017	Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Feb 3, 2017	Hamburger SV 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Sep 10, 2016	Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV on May 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15
Hamburger SV	1.6	1.8	1	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th in Bundesliga (59 points from 34 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 13th (38 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?: The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV played?: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV is played on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.