Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer LeverkusenHamburger SV

The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,244 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 205-point Elo edge (2,265 vs 2,059).

71%17%12%
Bayer Leverkusen winDrawHamburger SV win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
  1. 14P. Schick
  1. 24Aleix García
  2. 30I. Maza
  3. 6E. Fernández
  4. 9Afonso Moreira
  5. 10M. Tillman
  1. 2F. Medina
  2. 12E. Tapsoba
  3. 3Miguel Gutiérrez
  4. 4J. Quansah
  1. 1M. Flekken

Hamburger SV

3-5-2
  1. 11A. Grønbæk
  2. 27P. Daka
  1. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  2. 5M. Adeline
  3. 28M. Muheim
  4. 6A. Sambi Lokonga
  5. 7Z. El Ouahdi
  1. 17W. Omari
  2. 43S. Nandja
  3. 33S. Bornauw
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Computed on November 10, 2026 at 04:49 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Hamburger SV have 7, 1 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 20261. FC Köln(away)2-1Bundesliga
Nov 5, 2026Marseille(home)0-1UEFA Europa League
Oct 31, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)2-4Bundesliga
Oct 28, 20261. FC Nürnberg(home)5-2DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)0-3Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 6, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(home)3-1Bundesliga
Nov 1, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(away)1-3Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026SC Paderborn 07(away)0-1Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)1-0Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayer Leverkusen wins, 1 draw, 1 Hamburger SV win.

DateScoreCompetition
May 16, 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Mar 4, 2026Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Feb 17, 2018Hamburger SV 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Sep 24, 2017Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Feb 3, 2017Hamburger SV 1-0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Sep 10, 2016Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Hamburger SVBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV on May 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen2.51.367/1511/15
Hamburger SV1.41.938/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 5th in Bundesliga (16 points from 9 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 11th (12 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5Bayer Leverkusen9513201716
11Hamburger SV9405102012

A question about Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV played?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV is played on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Bayer Leverkusen and Hamburger SV

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