Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund played?

FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund is played on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Dortmund

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Borussia Dortmund. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (2,290 vs 2,155).

FSV Mainz 05 win42 %

Draw24 %

Borussia Dortmund win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 8, 1 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bayern München(home)	1-2	Super Cup
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Borussia Dortmund win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 13, 2026	Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Sep 27, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 0-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Mar 30, 2025	Borussia Dortmund 3-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Nov 9, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 3-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
May 11, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 3-0 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Dec 19, 2023	Borussia Dortmund 1-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 on Feb 13, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15
Borussia Dortmund	1.7	1.2	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Borussia Dortmund.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund played?: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund is played on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.