Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaMatchday 32Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Borussia Dortmund. The most likely score is 1-1. If FSV Mainz 05 wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,926 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?

On Elo ratings, FSV Mainz 05 has 2,152 points and Borussia Dortmund 2,373.

40%24%36%
FSV Mainz 05 winDrawBorussia Dortmund win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 23S. Becker
  2. 9P. Tietz
  1. 6K. Sano
  2. 10N. Amiri
  3. 19A. Caci
  4. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  5. 2P. Mwene
  1. 48K. Potulski
  2. 21D. da Costa
  3. 4S. Posch
  1. 27R. Zentner

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1
  1. 9S. Guirassy
  1. 8F. Nmecha
  2. 24D. Svensson
  3. 25J. Veerman
  4. 7J. Bellingham
  5. 17C. Chukwuemeka
  6. 21Fábio Silva
  1. 3W. Anton
  2. 4N. Schlotterbeck
  3. 22Kouakou Joane Gadou
  1. 1G. Kobel

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 05:20 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 11, 3 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Bayern München(home)1-2Bundesliga
Oct 30, 2026SV Elversberg(away)1-4Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026VfL Bochum(away)0-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-3Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026SV Elversberg(home)2-1Bundesliga
Nov 4, 2026Real Betis(home)2-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 31, 2026Bayern München(away)2-2Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026Werder Bremen(home)3-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-0Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FSV Mainz 05 wins, 1 draw, 3 Borussia Dortmund wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 13, 2026Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Sep 27, 2025FSV Mainz 05 0-2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Mar 30, 2025Borussia Dortmund 3-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Nov 9, 2024FSV Mainz 05 3-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
May 11, 2024FSV Mainz 05 3-0 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Dec 19, 2023Borussia Dortmund 1-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 on Feb 13, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 2.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 052.61.768/1512/15
Borussia Dortmund2.10.968/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 12th in Bundesliga (10 points from 9 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (21 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Borussia Dortmund963016721
12FSV Mainz 059315181910

A question about FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Borussia Dortmund.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund played?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund is played on May 8, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund