Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen
The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Marseille. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,757 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (2,309 vs 2,077).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bayer Leverkusen
4-2-3-1- 14P. Schick
- 24Aleix García
- 6E. Fernández
- 10M. Tillman
- 30I. Maza
- 9Afonso Moreira
- 2F. Medina
- 4J. Quansah
- 12E. Tapsoba
- 17Lucas Vázquez
- 1M. Flekken
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 11N. Maupay
- 9A. Gouiri
- 7A. Gomes
- 8H. Abdelli
- 48K. Abdallah
- 14Igor Paixão
- 21N. Aguerd
- 33Emerson
- 22T. Weah
- 18B. Meité
- 1J. de Lange
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 12:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 11 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; Marseille have 7, 0 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 22, 2026 | OFI(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Lech Poznan(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 4-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Angers(away) | 5-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Bayer Leverkusen win, 0 draws, 0 Marseille wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2023 | Marseille 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Marseille vs Bayer Leverkusen on Aug 2, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
| Marseille | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bayer Leverkusen sit 2nd in UEFA Europa League (9 points from 3 matches) and Marseille sit 34th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
A question about Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Marseille.
- Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille played?
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille is played on November 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.