Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg

The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for SC Freiburg. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bayer Leverkusen wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

On Elo ratings, Bayer Leverkusen has 2,284 points and SC Freiburg 2,224.

51%23%26%
Bayer Leverkusen winDrawSC Freiburg win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
  1. 14P. Schick
  1. 24Aleix García
  2. 6E. Fernández
  3. 30I. Maza
  4. 9Afonso Moreira
  5. 19M. Diaby
  1. 12E. Tapsoba
  2. 3Miguel Gutiérrez
  3. 2F. Medina
  4. 4J. Quansah
  1. 1M. Flekken

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1
  1. 31I. Matanović
  1. 19J. Beste
  2. 8M. Eggestein
  3. 14Y. Suzuki
  4. 16Y. Engelhardt
  5. 7D. Scherhant
  1. 28M. Ginter
  2. 33J. Makengo
  3. 3P. Lienhart
  4. 29P. Treu
  1. 1M. Backhaus

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 05:07 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; SC Freiburg have 12, 1 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026RB Leipzig(home)2-0Bundesliga
Sep 16, 2026Celje(home)2-0UEFA Europa League
Sep 12, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-2Bundesliga
Sep 5, 2026Union Berlin(home)4-0Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026SV Elversberg(away)2-3Bundesliga
SC Freiburg
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026FC Luzern(home)4-2Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(away)2-2Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(home)5-0Bundesliga
Sep 5, 2026SC Paderborn 07(away)1-0Bundesliga
Aug 30, 2026Werder Bremen(home)4-1Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayer Leverkusen wins, 2 draws, 0 SC Freiburg wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 7, 2026SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Oct 26, 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
May 4, 2025SC Freiburg 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Dec 21, 2024Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Mar 17, 2024SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Oct 29, 2023Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga

Last archived meeting: SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen on Mar 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; SC Freiburg score 3.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen2.70.978/1512/15
SC Freiburg3.01.1410/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 5th in Bundesliga (7 points from 4 matches) and SC Freiburg sit 3rd (10 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3SC Freiburg431012310
5Bayer Leverkusen42111057

A question about Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for SC Freiburg.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg played?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg

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