Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg played?

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

SC Freiburg

The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for SC Freiburg. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Bayer Leverkusen (2,277) and SC Freiburg (2,178).

Bayer Leverkusen win59 %

Draw21 %

SC Freiburg win20 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; SC Freiburg have 9, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

SC Freiburg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Fortuna Düsseldorf(away)	5-1	DFB Pokal
Aug 20, 2026	Motherwell(away)	3-1	UEFA Europa Conference League
Aug 15, 2026	Crystal Palace(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Strasbourg(home)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Derby(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayer Leverkusen win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 SC Freiburg win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 7, 2026	SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Oct 26, 2025	Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 SC Freiburg	Bundesliga
May 4, 2025	SC Freiburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Dec 21, 2024	Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 SC Freiburg	Bundesliga
Mar 17, 2024	SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Oct 29, 2023	Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen on Mar 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; SC Freiburg score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15
SC Freiburg	2.2	1.5	2	11/15	13/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th in Bundesliga (59 points from 34 matches) and SC Freiburg sit 7th (47 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59
7	SC Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51	57	47

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?: The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for SC Freiburg.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg played?: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.