FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen
The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for FC Schalke 04. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (2,142 vs 2,039).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hessen Kassel(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Krieschow(away) | 9-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC Schalke 04 win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 FSV Mainz 05 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 2-3 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 9, 2022 | FC Schalke 04 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Mar 5, 2021 | FC Schalke 04 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 7, 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 2-2 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| Feb 16, 2020 | FSV Mainz 05 0-0 FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 20, 2019 | FC Schalke 04 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04 on May 5, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
FC Schalke 04 score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 53 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
- The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for FC Schalke 04.
- Where and when is FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
- FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Arena AufSchalke, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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