Match

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart

The Footlab AI model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1. If VfB Stuttgart wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

VfB Stuttgart starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (2,247 vs 2,056).

29%23%48%
Hamburger SV winDrawVfB Stuttgart win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Hamburger SV

3-4-2-1
  1. 15Y. Poulsen
  1. 21N. Remberg
  2. 6A. Sambi Lokonga
  3. 11A. Grønbæk
  4. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  5. 7Z. El Ouahdi
  6. 20Fábio Vieira
  1. 23J. Torunarigha
  2. 24N. Capaldo
  3. 43S. Nandja
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

VfB Stuttgart

3-4-2-1
  1. 9E. Demirović
  1. 21G. Prömel
  2. 6A. Stiller
  3. 26D. Undav
  4. 10C. Führich
  5. 4J. Vagnoman
  6. 16A. Karazor
  1. 24J. Chabot
  2. 7M. Mittelstädt
  3. 29Finn Jeltsch
  1. 1F. Bredlow

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; VfB Stuttgart have 9, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 4, 2026FC Copenhagen(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 20261. FC Köln(home)2-1Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-5Bundesliga
Sep 6, 2026FSV Mainz 05(home)0-5Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026Borussia Dortmund(away)0-2Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 1, 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)5-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 25, 20261. FC Heidenheim(home)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Dortmund(home)0-1Bundesliga
Sep 12, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)1-2Bundesliga
Sep 9, 2026Viking(home)3-1UEFA Champions League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hamburger SV win, 0 draws, 5 VfB Stuttgart wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 12, 2026VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Nov 30, 2025Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Jun 5, 2023Hamburger SV 1-3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Jun 1, 2023VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Aug 26, 2020VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
May 28, 2020VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; VfB Stuttgart score 3.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV1.52.0210/1512/15
VfB Stuttgart3.11.257/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 16th in Bundesliga (3 points from 4 matches) and VfB Stuttgart sit 15th (3 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
15VfB Stuttgart4103693
16Hamburger SV41032133

A question about Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
The Footlab AI model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart played?
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart

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