Where and when is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart played?

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

VfB Stuttgart

The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

VfB Stuttgart starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (2,244 vs 2,049).

Hamburger SV win22 %

Draw20 %

VfB Stuttgart win57 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; VfB Stuttgart have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen(away)	1-1	Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Hansa Rostock(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Fulham(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Everton(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Paris FC(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	8-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hamburger SV win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 VfB Stuttgart win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 12, 2026	VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Nov 30, 2025	Hamburger SV 2-1 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Jun 5, 2023	Hamburger SV 1-3 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Jun 1, 2023	VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Aug 26, 2020	VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Hamburger SV	Friendlies Clubs
May 28, 2020	VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; VfB Stuttgart score 3.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.4	1.9	0	13/15	11/15
VfB Stuttgart	3.1	1.3	4	9/15	13/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 13th in Bundesliga (38 points from 34 matches) and VfB Stuttgart sit 4th (62 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71	49	62
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?: The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart played?: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.