Where and when is Bayern München vs RB Leipzig played?

Bayern München vs RB Leipzig is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 82% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern München

RB Leipzig

The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 73%, against 15% for a draw and 13% for RB Leipzig. The most likely score is 3-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,519 Elo points against 2,204 — a 315-point gap.

Bayern München win73 %

Draw15 %

RB Leipzig win13 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; RB Leipzig have 10, 0 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Borussia Dortmund(away)	2-1	Super Cup
Aug 18, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	RB Leipzig(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Aston Villa(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 4, 2026	Jeju United FC(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

RB Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Eintracht Trier(away)	6-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Leeds(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Verl(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Bayern München win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 RB Leipzig win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Bayern München 3-1 RB Leipzig	Friendlies Clubs
Feb 11, 2026	Bayern München 2-0 RB Leipzig	DFB Pokal
Jan 17, 2026	RB Leipzig 1-5 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Aug 22, 2025	Bayern München 6-0 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
May 3, 2025	RB Leipzig 3-3 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Dec 20, 2024	Bayern München 5-1 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayern München vs RB Leipzig on Aug 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 2.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayern München	2.7	1.5	3	12/15	12/15
RB Leipzig	2.2	1.4	5	9/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayern München sit 1st in Bundesliga (89 points from 34 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 3rd (65 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	89
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	65

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?: The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 73%, against 15% for a draw and 13% for RB Leipzig.
Where and when is Bayern München vs RB Leipzig played?: Bayern München vs RB Leipzig is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 82% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.