Match

Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig

The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 84%, against 10% for a draw and 6% for RB Leipzig. The most likely score is 3-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,530 Elo points against 2,218, a 313-point gap.

84%10%6%
Bayern München winDrawRB Leipzig win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayern München

4-2-3-1
  1. 9H. Kane
  1. 17M. Olise
  2. 6J. Kimmich
  3. 14L. Díaz
  4. 45A. Pavlović
  5. 34I. Saibari
  1. 4J. Tah
  2. 2D. Upamecano
  3. 44J. Stanišić
  4. 19A. Davies
  1. 1M. Neuer

Known absences

  • J. MusialaOut · Muscle injury
  • N. BrownOut · Injured
  • T. BuchmannOut · Knee injury

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1
  1. 40Rômulo
  1. 7A. Nusa
  2. 6E. Banzuzi
  3. 21N. El Aynaoui
  4. 28C. Nkunku
  5. 10B. Gruda
  1. 4W. Orbán
  2. 22D. Raum
  3. 17R. Baku
  4. 23C. Lukeba
  1. 26M. Vandevoordt

Known absences

  • A. OuédraogoOut · Shoulder injury
  • C. BaumgartnerOut · Thigh injury
  • Marc GuiuOut · Hamstring injury

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 07:22 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; RB Leipzig have 8, 0 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 13, 2026Viking(away)3-3UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-2Bundesliga
Sep 18, 2026Union Berlin(home)7-0Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026SV Elversberg(away)2-1Bundesliga
Sep 10, 2026Bodo/Glimt(home)5-0UEFA Champions League
RB Leipzig
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 13, 2026PSV Eindhoven(home)1-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)6-0Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)0-2Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026Hamburger SV(home)5-0Bundesliga
Sep 10, 2026Como(away)1-4UEFA Champions League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Bayern München wins, 1 draw, 0 RB Leipzig wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 15, 2026Bayern München 3-1 RB LeipzigFriendlies Clubs
Feb 11, 2026Bayern München 2-0 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal
Jan 17, 2026RB Leipzig 1-5 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Aug 22, 2025Bayern München 6-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
May 3, 2025RB Leipzig 3-3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Dec 20, 2024Bayern München 5-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayern München vs RB Leipzig on Aug 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 3.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayern München3.01.1411/1514/15
RB Leipzig2.21.576/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayern München sit 3rd in Bundesliga (11 points from 5 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Bayern München532016411
5RB Leipzig53021559

A question about Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 84%, against 10% for a draw and 6% for RB Leipzig.
Where and when is Bayern München vs RB Leipzig played?
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 82% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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