Where and when is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund played?

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

Union Berlin

Borussia Dortmund

The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Union Berlin. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 272-point Elo edge (2,284 vs 2,012).

Union Berlin win30 %

Draw23 %

Borussia Dortmund win47 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Berlin have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 8, 1 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Union Berlin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Eintracht Braunschweig(away)	4-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Ipswich(home)	2-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Aris(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 2, 2026	Cagliari(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Dynamo Dresden(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bayern München(home)	1-2	Super Cup
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Union Berlin win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Borussia Dortmund win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 24, 2026	Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Aug 31, 2025	Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Feb 22, 2025	Borussia Dortmund 6-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Oct 5, 2024	Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Mar 2, 2024	Union Berlin 0-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Oct 7, 2023	Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Union Berlin	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund on Jan 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Union Berlin score 2.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Union Berlin	2.5	1.9	1	13/15	12/15
Borussia Dortmund	1.7	1.2	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Union Berlin sit 11th in Bundesliga (39 points from 34 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?: The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Union Berlin.
Where and when is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund played?: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.