Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 played?

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

SC Paderborn 07

The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for SC Paderborn 07. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 194-point Elo edge (2,286 vs 2,092).

Bayer Leverkusen win61 %

Draw21 %

SC Paderborn 07 win18 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; SC Paderborn 07 have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

SC Paderborn 07
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Phönix Lübeck(away)	4-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 8, 2026	Werder Bremen(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	VfL Osnabrück(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 25, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(home)	2-1	Bundesliga
May 21, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(away)	0-0	Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Bayer Leverkusen win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 SC Paderborn 07 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Oct 29, 2025	SC Paderborn 07 2-4 Bayer Leverkusen	DFB Pokal
Dec 6, 2023	Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 SC Paderborn 07	DFB Pokal
Jul 21, 2023	Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 SC Paderborn 07	Friendlies Clubs
Jan 19, 2020	SC Paderborn 07 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Oct 29, 2019	Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 SC Paderborn 07	DFB Pokal
Aug 17, 2019	Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen on Oct 29, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; SC Paderborn 07 score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15
SC Paderborn 07	1.9	1.5	4	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?: The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for SC Paderborn 07.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 played?: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.