Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07: prediction and stats

BundesligaMatchday 10Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07

The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for SC Paderborn 07. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,941 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (2,309 vs 2,129).

72%17%11%
Bayer Leverkusen winDrawSC Paderborn 07 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
  1. 14P. Schick
  1. 24Aleix García
  2. 30I. Maza
  3. 6E. Fernández
  4. 9Afonso Moreira
  5. 10M. Tillman
  1. 2F. Medina
  2. 12E. Tapsoba
  3. 3Miguel Gutiérrez
  4. 4J. Quansah
  1. 1M. Flekken

SC Paderborn 07

3-5-2
  1. 30S. Marino
  2. 2Ruben Müller
  1. 5S. Castañeda
  2. 17L. Curda
  3. 40G. Vidović
  4. 23R. Obermair
  5. 6T. Baack
  1. 21J. ter Horst
  2. 25T. Scheller
  3. 22M. Hansen
  1. 15N. Noll

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 01:09 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; SC Paderborn 07 have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 20261. FC Köln(away)2-1Bundesliga
Nov 5, 2026Marseille(home)0-1UEFA Europa League
Oct 31, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)2-4Bundesliga
Oct 28, 20261. FC Nürnberg(home)5-2DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)0-3Bundesliga
SC Paderborn 07
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)2-2Bundesliga
Oct 31, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)0-0Bundesliga
Oct 28, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)0-1DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Hamburger SV(home)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026Werder Bremen(away)2-2Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Bayer Leverkusen wins, 0 draws, 1 SC Paderborn 07 win.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 29, 2025SC Paderborn 07 2-4 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal
Dec 6, 2023Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
Jul 21, 2023Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
Jan 19, 2020SC Paderborn 07 1-4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Oct 29, 2019Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
Aug 17, 2019Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen on Oct 29, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; SC Paderborn 07 score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen2.51.367/1511/15
SC Paderborn 071.31.156/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 5th in Bundesliga (16 points from 9 matches) and SC Paderborn 07 sit 13th (10 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5Bayer Leverkusen9513201716
13SC Paderborn 07924381110

A question about Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 72%, against 17% for a draw and 11% for SC Paderborn 07.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 played?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07