Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach
The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (2,291 vs 2,107).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Borussia Mönchengladbach have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Schott Mainz(away) | 5-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | SSVg Velbert(away) | 8-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hansa Rostock(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rot-Weiß Essen(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bayern München(home) | 1-2 | Super Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 3-2 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Borussia Dortmund win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Borussia Mönchengladbach score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Borussia Mönchengladbach sit 12th in Bundesliga (38 points from 34 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 34 | 73 |
| 12 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 53 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
- The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- Where and when is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund played?
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BORUSSIA-PARK, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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