Where and when is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig played?

Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

Union Berlin

RB Leipzig

The Footlab model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Union Berlin. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?

RB Leipzig starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (2,211 vs 2,034).

Union Berlin win35 %

Draw23 %

RB Leipzig win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Berlin have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; RB Leipzig have 10, 0 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Union Berlin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Eintracht Braunschweig(away)	4-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Ipswich(home)	2-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Aris(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 2, 2026	Cagliari(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Dynamo Dresden(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

RB Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Eintracht Trier(away)	6-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Leeds(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Verl(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Union Berlin win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 RB Leipzig win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 24, 2026	RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Dec 12, 2025	Union Berlin 3-1 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Feb 1, 2025	Union Berlin 0-0 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Sep 14, 2024	RB Leipzig 0-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Feb 4, 2024	RB Leipzig 2-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Sep 3, 2023	Union Berlin 0-3 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin on Apr 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Union Berlin score 2.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Union Berlin	2.5	1.9	1	13/15	12/15
RB Leipzig	2.2	1.4	5	9/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Union Berlin sit 11th in Bundesliga (39 points from 34 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 3rd (65 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	65
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?: The Footlab model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Union Berlin.
Where and when is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig played?: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.