Match

Bayern München vs Arsenal: prediction and stats

UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 3Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern MünchenArsenal

The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Arsenal. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,899 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs Arsenal?

Bayern München starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (2,561 vs 2,443).

66%19%15%
Bayern München winDrawArsenal win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayern München vs Arsenal

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayern München

4-2-3-1
  1. 9H. Kane
  1. 6J. Kimmich
  2. 14L. Díaz
  3. 45A. Pavlović
  4. 42L. Karl
  5. 8T. Bischof
  1. 27K. Laimer
  2. 3Kim Min-Jae
  3. 4J. Tah
  4. 2D. Upamecano
  1. 40J. Urbig

Known absences

  • J. MusialaOut · Muscle injury
  • M. OliseOut · Suspended (red card)
  • N. BrownOut · Injured
  • T. BuchmannOut · Knee injury

Arsenal

4-2-3-1
  1. 14V. Gyökeres
  1. 41D. Rice
  2. 39Bruno Guimarães
  3. 10E. Eze
  4. 20N. Madueke
  5. 7B. Saka
  1. 6Gabriel Magalhães
  2. 15E. Konsa
  3. 49M. Lewis-Skelly
  4. 12J. Timber
  1. 1David Raya

Known absences

  • C. TzolisOut · Hamstring injury
  • P. HincapiéOut · Ankle injury
  • W. SalibaOut · Back injury

Computed on October 20, 2026 at 09:10 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Arsenal have 11, 1 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026RB Leipzig(home)6-1Bundesliga
Oct 13, 2026Viking(away)3-3UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-2Bundesliga
Sep 18, 2026Union Berlin(home)7-0Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026SV Elversberg(away)2-1Bundesliga
Arsenal
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Nottingham Forest(away)1-0Premier League
Oct 13, 2026Lille(home)3-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Leeds(home)2-1Premier League
Sep 19, 2026Brighton(away)0-3Premier League
Sep 15, 2026Ipswich(away)4-2League Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bayern München wins, 2 draws, 2 Arsenal wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 26, 2025Arsenal 3-1 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
Apr 17, 2024Bayern München 1-0 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
Apr 9, 2024Arsenal 2-2 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
Jul 18, 2019Arsenal 2-1 Bayern MünchenInternational Champions Cup
Jul 19, 2017Bayern München 1-1 ArsenalInternational Champions Cup
Mar 7, 2017Arsenal 1-5 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League

Last archived meeting: Arsenal vs Bayern München on Nov 26, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 3.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayern München3.21.1312/1514/15
Arsenal2.01.077/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayern München sit 12th in UEFA Champions League (4 points from 2 matches) and Arsenal sit 8th (6 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
8Arsenal2200406
12Bayern München2110834

A question about Bayern München vs Arsenal?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs Arsenal?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Arsenal.
Where and when is Bayern München vs Arsenal played?
Bayern München vs Arsenal is played on October 21, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the UEFA Champions League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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