Match

Bayern München vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern MünchenHamburger SV

The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 88%, against 8% for a draw and 4% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 3-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs Hamburger SV?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,558 Elo points against 2,117, a 441-point gap.

88%8%4%
Bayern München winDrawHamburger SV win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayern München vs Hamburger SV

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayern München

4-2-3-1
  1. 9H. Kane
  1. 17M. Olise
  2. 6J. Kimmich
  3. 14L. Díaz
  4. 45A. Pavlović
  5. 34I. Saibari
  1. 2D. Upamecano
  2. 11N. Brown
  3. 3Kim Min-Jae
  4. 27K. Laimer
  1. 40J. Urbig

Hamburger SV

3-4-2-1
  1. 15Y. Poulsen
  1. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  2. 20Fábio Vieira
  3. 5M. Adeline
  4. 37L. Lemke
  5. 21N. Remberg
  6. 6A. Sambi Lokonga
  1. 24N. Capaldo
  2. 33S. Bornauw
  3. 17W. Omari
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:34 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Hamburger SV have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026RB Leipzig(home)6-1Bundesliga
Oct 13, 2026Viking(away)3-3UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-2Bundesliga
Sep 18, 2026Union Berlin(home)7-0Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026SV Elversberg(away)2-1Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)3-2Bundesliga
Oct 4, 2026FC Copenhagen(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 20261. FC Köln(home)2-1Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-5Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Bayern München wins, 1 draw, 0 Hamburger SV wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 31, 2026Hamburger SV 2-2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Sep 13, 2025Bayern München 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Mar 10, 2018Bayern München 6-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Oct 21, 2017Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Feb 25, 2017Bayern München 8-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Sep 24, 2016Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs Bayern München on Jan 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 3.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayern München3.21.1312/1514/15
Hamburger SV1.61.839/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayern München sit 1st in Bundesliga (14 points from 6 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 9th (9 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Bayern München642022514
9Hamburger SV63036159

A question about Bayern München vs Hamburger SV?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs Hamburger SV?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 88%, against 8% for a draw and 4% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Bayern München vs Hamburger SV played?
Bayern München vs Hamburger SV is played on April 3, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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