Belasitsa vs Balkan Botevgrad: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Tsar Samuil, Petrich
The Footlab model makes Belasitsa the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Balkan Botevgrad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belasitsa vs Balkan Botevgrad?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Belasitsa (1,483) and Balkan Botevgrad (1,484).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belasitsa have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Balkan Botevgrad have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levski Sofia II(home) | 4-5 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pirin Razlog(away) | 3-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Belasica(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Botev Ihtiman(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kyustendil(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Septemvri Simitli(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Strumska Slava(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 29, 2026 | Bansko(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Southwest |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Belasitsa win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Balkan Botevgrad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2022 | Balkan Botevgrad 2-1 Belasitsa | Third League - Southwest |
| Oct 9, 2021 | Belasitsa 1-1 Balkan Botevgrad | Third League - Southwest |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Belasitsa 3-3 Balkan Botevgrad | Third League - Southwest |
| Oct 17, 2020 | Balkan Botevgrad 2-0 Belasitsa | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 24, 2019 | Belasitsa 3-2 Balkan Botevgrad | Third League - Southwest |
| Apr 6, 2019 | Belasitsa 4-4 Balkan Botevgrad | Third League - Southwest |
Last archived meeting: Balkan Botevgrad vs Belasitsa on Apr 30, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Belasitsa score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Balkan Botevgrad score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belasitsa | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Balkan Botevgrad | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belasitsa sit 5th in Third League - Southwest (7 points from 4 matches) and Balkan Botevgrad sit 11th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Belasitsa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| 11 | Balkan Botevgrad | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belasitsa vs Balkan Botevgrad?
- The Footlab model makes Belasitsa the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Balkan Botevgrad.
- Where and when is Belasitsa vs Balkan Botevgrad played?
- Belasitsa vs Balkan Botevgrad is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Tsar Samuil, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026BanskovsBotev Ihtiman
- Oct 3, 2026OborishtevsKyustendil
- Oct 3, 2026Strumska SlavavsSeptemvri Simitli
- Oct 3, 2026FK Minyor PernikvsSlavia Sofia II
- Oct 3, 2026Chavdar EtropolevsSlivnishki geroy
- Oct 3, 2026Pirin RazlogvsLevski Sofia II
- Oct 3, 2026Natsional SofiavsSeptemvri Sofia II
- Oct 3, 2026CSKA Sofia IIIvsKostinbrod