Where and when is Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II played?

Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Southwest.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II: prediction and stats

Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)

Natsional Sofia

Septemvri Sofia II

The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Septemvri Sofia II. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II?

A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Natsional Sofia (1,463) and Septemvri Sofia II (1,510).

Natsional Sofia win46 %

Draw26 %

Septemvri Sofia II win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Natsional Sofia have 3 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Septemvri Sofia II have 8, 5 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Natsional Sofia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Strumska Slava(home)	0-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 15, 2026	Oborishte(away)	1-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 8, 2026	Bansko(home)	2-2	Third League - Southwest
Aug 1, 2026	FK Minyor Pernik(away)	0-1	Third League - Southwest
Sep 18, 2024	Rilski Sportist(home)	3-4	Cup

Septemvri Sofia II
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Belasitsa(away)	1-2	Third League - Southwest
Aug 15, 2026	Levski Sofia II(away)	1-1	Third League - Southwest
Aug 8, 2026	Slavia Sofia II(home)	1-0	Third League - Southwest
Aug 2, 2026	Botev Ihtiman(away)	2-1	Third League - Southwest
May 29, 2026	Levski Sofia II(away)	2-0	Third League - Southwest

How many goals should we expect?

Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 9; Septemvri Sofia II score 1.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Natsional Sofia	3.4	2.0	2	5/9	8/9
Septemvri Sofia II	1.8	0.8	8	7/15	8/15

Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Natsional Sofia sit 17th in Third League - Southwest (1 points from 4 matches) and Septemvri Sofia II sit 7th (7 points from 4 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Septemvri Sofia II	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
17	Natsional Sofia	4	0	1	3	3	9	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II?: The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Septemvri Sofia II.
Where and when is Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II played?: Natsional Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia II is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Southwest.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.