Septemvri Simitli vs Belasitsa: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Struma, Simitli
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Simitli the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Belasitsa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Simitli vs Belasitsa?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Septemvri Simitli (1,489) and Belasitsa (1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Simitli have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Belasitsa have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chavdar Etropole(away) | 2-4 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Sofia III(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Balkan Botevgrad(away) | 2-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kostinbrod(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 29, 2026 | Kyustendil(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levski Sofia II(home) | 4-5 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pirin Razlog(away) | 3-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Belasica(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Septemvri Simitli win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Belasitsa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | Belasitsa 0-2 Septemvri Simitli | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 10, 2019 | Septemvri Simitli 3-1 Belasitsa | Third League - Southwest |
| May 4, 2019 | Septemvri Simitli 0-0 Belasitsa | Third League - Southwest |
| Oct 27, 2018 | Belasitsa 1-0 Septemvri Simitli | Third League - Southwest |
Last archived meeting: Belasitsa vs Septemvri Simitli on Feb 29, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Simitli score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Belasitsa score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Simitli | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Belasitsa | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Simitli sit 6th in Third League - Southwest (7 points from 4 matches) and Belasitsa sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Belasitsa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| 6 | Septemvri Simitli | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Simitli vs Belasitsa?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Simitli the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Belasitsa.
- Where and when is Septemvri Simitli vs Belasitsa played?
- Septemvri Simitli vs Belasitsa is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Struma, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Balkan BotevgradvsCSKA Sofia III
- Oct 10, 2026Botev IhtimanvsOborishte
- Oct 10, 2026KyustendilvsStrumska Slava
- Oct 10, 2026Slivnishki geroyvsNatsional Sofia
- Oct 10, 2026KostinbrodvsChavdar Etropole
- Oct 10, 2026Septemvri Sofia IIvsPirin Razlog
- Oct 10, 2026Levski Sofia IIvsFK Minyor Pernik
- Oct 10, 2026Slavia Sofia IIvsBansko