Balkan Botevgrad vs CSKA Sofia III: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Hristo Botev Izkustven Teren, Botevgrad
The Footlab model makes Balkan Botevgrad the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for CSKA Sofia III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Balkan Botevgrad vs CSKA Sofia III?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Balkan Botevgrad (1,484) and CSKA Sofia III (1,490).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Balkan Botevgrad have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; CSKA Sofia III have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Botev Ihtiman(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kyustendil(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Septemvri Simitli(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Strumska Slava(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 29, 2026 | Bansko(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kyustendil(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Septemvri Simitli(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 30, 2026 | Kostinbrod(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Balkan Botevgrad win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 CSKA Sofia III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Balkan Botevgrad 1-4 CSKA Sofia III | Third League - Southwest |
| Oct 25, 2025 | CSKA Sofia III 0-1 Balkan Botevgrad | Third League - Southwest |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Balkan Botevgrad 1-0 CSKA Sofia III | Third League - Southwest |
| Oct 5, 2024 | CSKA Sofia III 3-2 Balkan Botevgrad | Third League - Southwest |
Last archived meeting: Balkan Botevgrad vs CSKA Sofia III on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Balkan Botevgrad score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; CSKA Sofia III score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balkan Botevgrad | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| CSKA Sofia III | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Balkan Botevgrad sit 11th in Third League - Southwest (6 points from 4 matches) and CSKA Sofia III sit 12th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Balkan Botevgrad | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | CSKA Sofia III | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Balkan Botevgrad vs CSKA Sofia III?
- The Footlab model makes Balkan Botevgrad the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for CSKA Sofia III.
- Where and when is Balkan Botevgrad vs CSKA Sofia III played?
- Balkan Botevgrad vs CSKA Sofia III is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Hristo Botev Izkustven Teren, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Botev IhtimanvsOborishte
- Oct 10, 2026KyustendilvsStrumska Slava
- Oct 10, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsBelasitsa
- Oct 10, 2026Slivnishki geroyvsNatsional Sofia
- Oct 10, 2026KostinbrodvsChavdar Etropole
- Oct 10, 2026Septemvri Sofia IIvsPirin Razlog
- Oct 10, 2026Levski Sofia IIvsFK Minyor Pernik
- Oct 10, 2026Slavia Sofia IIvsBansko