Belgium vs Italy: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen
The Footlab AI model makes Belgium the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Italy. The most likely score is 1-1. If Belgium wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belgium vs Italy?
On Elo ratings, Belgium has 1,795 points and Italy 1,748.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Belgium vs Italy
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Belgium
4-2-3-1- 17C. De Ketelaere
- 19Diego Moreira
- 20H. Vanaken
- 14D. Lukebakio
- 7K. De Bruyne
- 8Y. Tielemans
- 4B. Mechele
- 21T. Castagne
- 15N. Ngoy
- 18J. Seys
- 1S. Lammens
Italy
4-3-3- 9F. Esposito
- 9M. Kean
- 11G. Scamacca
- 8S. Tonali
- 18N. Barella
- 4A. Romano
- 6A. Bastoni
- 23G. Mancini
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 19G. Scalvini
- 1G. Donnarumma
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belgium have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Italy have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | France(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Türkiye(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | France(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Italy(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Spain(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Türkiye(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | France(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Belgium(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Belgium win, 1 draw, 4 Italy wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Italy 0-2 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Belgium 0-1 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Italy 2-2 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Italy 2-1 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 2, 2021 | Belgium 1-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
| Jun 13, 2016 | Belgium 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Belgium score 2.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Italy score 2.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 2.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Italy | 2.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belgium sit 3rd in UEFA Nations League (6 points from 4 matches) and Italy sit 2nd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
A question about Belgium vs Italy?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belgium vs Italy?
- The Footlab AI model makes Belgium the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Italy.
- Where and when is Belgium vs Italy played?
- Belgium vs Italy is played on November 15, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Nagyerdei Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.