Greece vs Serbia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Pankritio Stadio, Iraklio (Heraklion)
The Footlab AI model makes Greece the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Serbia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Greece wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Greece vs Serbia?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Greece (1,643) and Serbia (1,601).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Greece vs Serbia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Greece
4-4-2- 14V. Pavlidis
- 8F. Ioannidis
- 6D. Kourbelis
- 20C. Zafeiris
- 10C. Tzolis
- 19K. Karetsas
- 21K. Tsimikas
- 4K. Mavropanos
- 17M. Saliakas
- 5P. Retsos
- 12K. Tzolakis
Serbia
5-4-1- 18M. CvetkoviÄ
- 10D. Tadić
- 14A. Živković
- 7A. Stanković
- 22S. Lukić
- 2K. Nedeljković
- 15S. Babić
- 3S. Pavlović
- 17A. Terzić
- 6N. Gudelj
- 23V. Milinković-Savić
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Greece have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Serbia have 5, 0 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Germany(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Netherlands(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Germany(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Germany(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Netherlands(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Greece(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Greece win, 0 draws, 0 Serbia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia 1-2 Greece | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Greece score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Serbia score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Serbia | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Greece sit 2nd in UEFA Nations League (8 points from 4 matches) and Serbia sit 4th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
A question about Greece vs Serbia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Greece vs Serbia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Greece the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Serbia.
- Where and when is Greece vs Serbia played?
- Greece vs Serbia is played on November 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Pankritio Stadio, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.