Greece vs Serbia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Pankritio Stadio, Iraklio (Heraklion)
The Footlab model makes Greece the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Serbia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Greece vs Serbia?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Greece (1,610) and Serbia (1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Greece have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Serbia have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sweden(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Paraguay(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Belarus(away) | 0-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Spain(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Latvia(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Greece score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Serbia score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Serbia | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Greece vs Serbia?
- The Footlab model makes Greece the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Serbia.
- Where and when is Greece vs Serbia played?
- Greece vs Serbia is played on November 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Pankritio Stadio, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.