Germany vs Netherlands: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
The Footlab AI model makes Netherlands the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Germany. The most likely score is 1-1. If Netherlands wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Germany (1,773) and Netherlands (1,804).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Germany vs Netherlands
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Germany
4-4-2- 17F. Wirtz
- 10J. Burkardt
- 5A. Pavlović
- 9D. Scherhant
- 8T. Bischof
- 15L. Karl
- 13P. Treu
- 3W. Anton
- 2M. Thiaw
- 22D. Raum
- 1J. Urbig
Known absences
N. BrownOut · Injured- N. SchlotterbeckOut · Ligament Stretching
Netherlands
4-2-3-1- 17M. Meerdink
- 7C. Summerville
- 18J. Veerman
- 8R. Gravenberch
- 14T. Reijnders
- 6Q. Timber
- 4V. van Dijk
- 22D. Dumfries
- 15M. van de Ven
- 20T. Koopmeiners
- 1B. Verbruggen
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Germany have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Netherlands have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Greece(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Serbia(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Greece(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Paraguay(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Serbia(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Greece(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Serbia(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Germany(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Germany wins, 3 draws, 1 Netherlands win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Netherlands 1-1 Germany | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Germany 1-0 Netherlands | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Netherlands 2-2 Germany | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2024 | Germany 2-1 Netherlands | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Netherlands 1-1 Germany | Friendlies |
| Sep 6, 2019 | Germany 2-4 Netherlands | Euro Championship |
Last archived meeting: Netherlands vs Germany on Sep 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Germany score 2.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Netherlands score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Netherlands | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Germany sit 3rd in UEFA Nations League (5 points from 4 matches) and Netherlands sit 1st (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
A question about Germany vs Netherlands?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Germany vs Netherlands?
- The Footlab AI model makes Netherlands the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Germany.
- Where and when is Germany vs Netherlands played?
- Germany vs Netherlands is played on November 16, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Europa-Park Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.