Wales vs Portugal: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
The Footlab AI model makes Portugal the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Wales. The most likely score is 1-1. If Portugal wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wales vs Portugal?
Portugal starts as the favourite with a 267-point Elo edge (1,848 vs 1,581).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wales vs Portugal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wales
4-2-3-1- 9L. Koumas
- 5E. Ampadu
- 19S. Thomas
- 17J. James
- 11B. Johnson
- 10L. Cullen
- 3N. Williams
- 4B. Davies
- 15J. Dasilva
- 6B. Cabango
- 12D. Ward
Portugal
4-1-3-2- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 11João Félix
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 23Vitinha
- 17Pedro Neto
- 6João Palhinha
- 20João Cancelo
- 19Nuno Mendes
- 13Renato Veiga
- 3Rúben Dias
- 1Diogo Costa
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wales have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Portugal have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Denmark(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Norway(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Norway(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Norway(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Wales(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Spain(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Wales wins, 0 draws, 2 Portugal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal 1-0 Wales | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 6, 2016 | Portugal 2-0 Wales | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Wales score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Portugal score 2.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Portugal | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wales sit 3rd in UEFA Nations League (3 points from 4 matches) and Portugal sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
A question about Wales vs Portugal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wales vs Portugal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Portugal the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Wales.
- Where and when is Wales vs Portugal played?
- Wales vs Portugal is played on November 17, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Swansea.com Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.