France vs Türkiye: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Groupama Stadium, Saint-Denis
The Footlab AI model makes France the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Türkiye. The most likely score is 1-1. If France wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win France vs Türkiye?
France starts as the favourite with a 245-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,645).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for France vs Türkiye
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
France
4-3-3- 7O. Dembélé
- 12B. Barcola
- 19E. Lepaul
- 6E. Camavinga
- 18M. Akliouche
- 8M. Koné
- 17M. Lacroix
- 13A. Diouf
- 5J. Koundé
- 2P. Kalulu
- 16M. Maignan
Türkiye
5-4-1- 10A. Güler
- 16İ. Yüksek
- 5S. Özcan
- 18O. Aydın
- 10İ. Kahveci
- 2Z. Çelik
- 14A. Bardakcı
- 20F. Kadıoğlu
- 3M. Demiral
- 15O. Kabak
- 1U. Çakır
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:16 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, France have 11 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; Türkiye have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Belgium(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Italy(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | England(home) | 4-6 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Italy(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Italy(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | France(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 26, 2026 | USA(home) | 3-2 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 France win, 1 draw, 1 Türkiye win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Türkiye 0-1 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 14, 2019 | France 1-1 Türkiye | Euro Championship |
| Jun 8, 2019 | Türkiye 2-0 France | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
France score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Türkiye score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Türkiye | 1.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
France sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (10 points from 4 matches) and Türkiye sit 4th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
A question about France vs Türkiye?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for France vs Türkiye?
- The Footlab AI model makes France the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Türkiye.
- Where and when is France vs Türkiye played?
- France vs Türkiye is played on November 15, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Groupama Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.