Spain vs England: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Spain the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for England. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spain vs England?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Spain (1,917) and England (1,853).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spain have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; England have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Uruguay(away) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 4-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Peru(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | France(away) | 6-4 | World Cup |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Argentina(home) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Panama(away) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Ghana(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Croatia(home) | 4-2 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Spain win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 England win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2024 | Spain 2-1 England | Euro Championship |
| Oct 15, 2018 | Spain 2-3 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 8, 2018 | England 1-2 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Spain score 2.4 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; England score 2.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 2.4 | 0.4 | 11 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
| England | 2.5 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spain vs England?
- The Footlab model makes Spain the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for England.
- Where and when is Spain vs England played?
- Spain vs England is played on November 15, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.