Spain vs England: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League6Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab AI model makes Spain the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for England. The most likely score is 1-1. If Spain wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spain vs England?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Spain (1,976) and England (1,894).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Spain vs England
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Spain
4-2-3-1- 21Mikel Oyarzabal
- 19Lamine Yamal
- 15Álex Baena
- 16Rodri
- 10Dani Olmo
- 20Pedri
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 22Marc Cucurella
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 12Marc Pubill
- 23Unai Simón
England
4-2-3-1- 9H. Kane
- 8E. Anderson
- 10J. Bellingham
- 16M. Lewis-Skelly
- 11A. Gordon
- 7B. Saka
- 6M. Guéhi
- 3L. Hall
- 4J. Quansah
- 2T. Alexander-Arnold
- 1J. Pickford
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spain have 12 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats; England have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Czechia(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Croatia(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | England(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Czechia(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 7-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spain(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | France(away) | 6-4 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Spain wins, 0 draws, 1 England win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | England 2-3 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Spain 2-1 England | Euro Championship |
| Oct 15, 2018 | Spain 2-3 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 8, 2018 | England 1-2 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Spain score 2.0 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; England score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 2.0 | 0.5 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| England | 2.5 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spain sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (12 points from 4 matches) and England sit 2nd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 9 |
A question about Spain vs England?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spain vs England?
- The Footlab AI model makes Spain the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for England.
- Where and when is Spain vs England played?
- Spain vs England is played on November 15, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.