Benin vs Mauritania: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan
The Footlab model makes Benin the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Mauritania. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benin vs Mauritania?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Benin (1,488) and Mauritania (1,479).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benin have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Mauritania have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Togo(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Niger(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Guinea(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Liberia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Egypt(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Angola(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Kuwait(home) | 0-2 | Arab Cup |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Libya(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Benin win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Mauritania win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2019 | Benin 3-1 Mauritania | Friendlies |
| Mar 24, 2017 | Mauritania 1-0 Benin | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Benin score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mauritania score 0.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benin | 0.8 | 1.5 | 6 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Mauritania | 0.5 | 0.8 | 8 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benin sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (8 points from 6 matches) and Mauritania sit 3rd (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benin | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benin vs Mauritania?
- The Footlab model makes Benin the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Mauritania.
- Where and when is Benin vs Mauritania played?
- Benin vs Mauritania is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.