Burkina Faso vs Mauritania: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Gombani Stadium, Gombani
The Footlab AI model makes Burkina Faso the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Mauritania. The most likely score is 1-1. If Burkina Faso wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burkina Faso vs Mauritania?
Burkina Faso starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,588 vs 1,478).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Burkina Faso vs Mauritania
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Burkina Faso
4-1-4-1- 2L. Traoré
- 8L. Doucet
- 18I. Ouédraogo
- 11O. Bouda
- 11D. Kam
- 13J. Diarra
- 12E. Tapsoba
- 26K. Kouassi
- 9I. Kaboré
- 5N. Djiga
- 16H. Koffi
Mauritania
4-3-3- 11D. Gassama
- 10I. Thiam
- 18D. Camara
- 6O. Ngom
- 7A. Koita
- 8M. Bodda
- 5L. Ba
- 3A. Abeid
- 21J. Lefort
- 13N. El Abd
- 30M. Diop
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burkina Faso have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Mauritania have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-7 | Friendlies |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Central African Republic(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Benin(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Belarus(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Benin(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Central African Republic(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Angola(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burkina Faso wins, 1 draw, 2 Mauritania wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2025 | Mauritania 1-0 Burkina Faso | African Nations Championship |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Burkina Faso 1-0 Mauritania | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Mauritania 1-2 Burkina Faso | Friendlies |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Mauritania 0-0 Burkina Faso | Friendlies |
| Mar 22, 2019 | Burkina Faso 1-0 Mauritania | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Sep 8, 2018 | Mauritania 2-0 Burkina Faso | Africa Cup of Nations |
Last archived meeting: Mauritania vs Burkina Faso on Aug 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Burkina Faso score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mauritania score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burkina Faso | 1.6 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Mauritania | 0.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burkina Faso sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 2 matches) and Mauritania sit 3rd (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
A question about Burkina Faso vs Mauritania?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burkina Faso vs Mauritania?
- The Footlab AI model makes Burkina Faso the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Mauritania.
- Where and when is Burkina Faso vs Mauritania played?
- Burkina Faso vs Mauritania is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Gombani Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.