BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils
The Footlab AI model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Tukums. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
BFC Daugavpils starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,666 vs 1,504).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
BFC Daugavpils
4-2-3-1- 97D. Kiwinda
- 10E. Ivanovs
- 11J. Yakubu
- 19E. Pinaskins
- 9A. Traore
- 4W. Mukwelle
- 8R. Skrebels
- 37Gļebs Mihaļcovs
- 34Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
- 5Papa
- 12J. Beks
Tukums
3-5-2- 27R. Deružinskis
- 11Leoni Gastaldelo
- 10B. Samoilovs
- 5J. Toba
- 4Kaspars Anmanis
- 16Kristaps Klavins
- 17M. Derkach
- 6K. Volkovs
- 21D. Valmiers
- 8R. Reingolcs
- 12A. Kuprins
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BFC Daugavpils have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Tukums have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FK Liepaja(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Auda(home) | 2-2 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Riga(home) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 BFC Daugavpils wins, 3 draws, 1 Tukums win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 2-0 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Tukums 1-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Tukums 1-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Tukums 0-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Jun 21, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 1-2 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Tukums 0-0 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tukums score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Tukums | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BFC Daugavpils sit 5th in Virsliga (42 points from 32 matches) and Tukums sit 9th (24 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 36 | 42 |
| 9 | Tukums | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 63 | 24 |
A question about BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
- The Footlab AI model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Tukums.
- Where and when is BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums played?
- BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums is played on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stadions Celtnieks, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.