BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils
The Footlab model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Tukums. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
BFC Daugavpils starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,645 vs 1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, BFC Daugavpils have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Tukums have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 BFC Daugavpils win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Tukums win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 2-0 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Tukums 1-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Tukums 1-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Tukums 0-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Jun 21, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 1-2 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Tukums 0-0 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tukums score 1.1 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Tukums | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
BFC Daugavpils sit 4th in Virsliga (37 points from 27 matches) and Tukums sit 9th (20 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 37 |
| 9 | Tukums | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 54 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
- The Footlab model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Tukums.
- Where and when is BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums played?
- BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums is played on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stadions Celtnieks, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.