Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München played?

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München is played on March 6, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

Bayern München

The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 52%, against 21% for a draw and 28% for Borussia Dortmund. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?

Bayern München starts as the favourite with a 234-point Elo edge (2,524 vs 2,290).

Borussia Dortmund win28 %

Draw21 %

Bayern München win52 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Bayern München have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bayern München(home)	1-2	Super Cup
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

Bayern München
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Borussia Dortmund(away)	2-1	Super Cup
Aug 18, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	RB Leipzig(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Aston Villa(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 4, 2026	Jeju United FC(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Borussia Dortmund win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Bayern München win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Bayern München	Super Cup
Feb 28, 2026	Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025	Bayern München 2-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Apr 12, 2025	Bayern München 2-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Nov 30, 2024	Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Mar 30, 2024	Bayern München 0-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München on Aug 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Bayern München score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund	1.7	1.2	4	8/15	9/15
Bayern München	2.7	1.5	3	12/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in Bundesliga (73 points from 34 matches) and Bayern München sit 1st (89 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?: The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 52%, against 21% for a draw and 28% for Borussia Dortmund.
Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München played?: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München is played on March 6, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.