Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen played?

VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on March 6, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MHPArena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

Bayer Leverkusen

The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Bayer Leverkusen. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?

A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate VfB Stuttgart (2,252) and Bayer Leverkusen (2,286).

VfB Stuttgart win44 %

Draw23 %

Bayer Leverkusen win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Bayer Leverkusen have 10, 1 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

VfB Stuttgart
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Hansa Rostock(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Fulham(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Everton(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Paris FC(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	8-1	Friendlies Clubs

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 VfB Stuttgart win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Bayer Leverkusen win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 9, 2026	VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Jan 10, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen 1-4 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Mar 16, 2025	VfB Stuttgart 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Nov 1, 2024	Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Aug 17, 2024	Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 VfB Stuttgart	Super Cup
Apr 27, 2024	Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen on May 9, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

VfB Stuttgart score 3.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart	3.1	1.3	4	9/15	13/15
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

VfB Stuttgart sit 4th in Bundesliga (62 points from 34 matches) and Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th (59 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71	49	62
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?: The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Bayer Leverkusen.
Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen played?: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on March 6, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.