Where and when is Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund played?

Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund is played on October 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern München

Borussia Dortmund

The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Borussia Dortmund. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?

Bayern München starts as the favourite with a 234-point Elo edge (2,519 vs 2,284).

Bayern München win67 %

Draw17 %

Borussia Dortmund win16 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 8, 1 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Borussia Dortmund(away)	2-1	Super Cup
Aug 18, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	RB Leipzig(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Aston Villa(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 4, 2026	Jeju United FC(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bayern München(home)	1-2	Super Cup
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bayern München win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Borussia Dortmund win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Bayern München	Super Cup
Feb 28, 2026	Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025	Bayern München 2-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Apr 12, 2025	Bayern München 2-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Nov 30, 2024	Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Mar 30, 2024	Bayern München 0-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München on Aug 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 2.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayern München	2.7	1.5	3	12/15	12/15
Borussia Dortmund	1.7	1.2	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayern München sit 1st in Bundesliga (89 points from 34 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?: The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 67%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Borussia Dortmund.
Where and when is Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund played?: Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund is played on October 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.