Match

Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia DortmundRB Leipzig

The Footlab AI model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for RB Leipzig. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,680 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (2,325 vs 2,219).

61%20%19%
Borussia Dortmund winDrawRB Leipzig win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1
  1. 9S. Guirassy
  1. 24D. Svensson
  2. 8F. Nmecha
  3. 26J. Ryerson
  4. 25J. Veerman
  5. 21Fábio Silva
  6. 20M. Sabitzer
  1. 3W. Anton
  2. 4N. Schlotterbeck
  3. 5R. Bensebaïni
  1. 1G. Kobel

RB Leipzig

4-5-1
  1. 27T. Gomis
  1. 7A. Nusa
  2. 21N. El Aynaoui
  3. 6E. Banzuzi
  4. 20R. Reitz
  5. 28C. Nkunku
  1. 4W. Orbán
  2. 22D. Raum
  3. 23C. Lukeba
  4. 3M. Estève
  1. 26M. Vandevoordt

Computed on October 27, 2026 at 07:53 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; RB Leipzig have 8, 0 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Borussia Dortmund
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 20, 2026Sabah FA(away)2-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 17, 2026Union Berlin(away)0-0Bundesliga
Oct 14, 2026Bodo/Glimt(away)0-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 9, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-2Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026SV Elversberg(home)4-0Bundesliga
Oct 21, 2026Real Madrid(away)1-4UEFA Champions League
Oct 17, 2026Bayern München(away)1-6Bundesliga
Oct 13, 2026PSV Eindhoven(home)1-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)6-0Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Borussia Dortmund win, 2 draws, 3 RB Leipzig wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 21, 2026RB Leipzig 2-2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Oct 4, 2025Borussia Dortmund 1-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Mar 15, 2025RB Leipzig 2-0 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Nov 2, 2024Borussia Dortmund 2-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Apr 27, 2024RB Leipzig 4-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Dec 9, 2023Borussia Dortmund 2-3 RB LeipzigBundesliga

Last archived meeting: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund on Feb 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Borussia Dortmund score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 2.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund1.90.977/159/15
RB Leipzig2.31.685/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in Bundesliga (17 points from 7 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 5th (12 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Borussia Dortmund752012417
5RB Leipzig7403201112

A question about Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig?
The Footlab AI model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for RB Leipzig.
Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig played?
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig is played on April 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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